In 1999, executives from the major processed-food companies gathered in Minneapolis where they received a dire warning: rising levels of obesity and diabetes in the United States could summon a tide of public anger against them and companies would need to limit fat, sugar and salt in their food to mitigate the consequences of a backlash.
According to a recent New York Times article that described the meeting, Kraft Vice President Michael Mudd even compared the potential fall-out to the fate of tobacco companies who for decades fought the notion that they bore responsibility for tobacco-related illnesses.
But the executives balked back then. The companies had spent loads creating brands and products with high amounts of sugar, fat and sodium. Those ingredients appeal immensely to the human palette and reducing their quantities in food could affect the bottom line.
So when I saw recently that ready-to-eat cereal sales are dipping, I wondered if the reckoning that Mudd described is close.
For decades, General Mills based in Golden Valley has offered delicious breakfast cereals like Lucky Charms and Cookie Crisp, but much of it has been derided as thinly veiled candy — more than 34 percent sugar. And more and more studies and doctors say that the calories in sugar lead to obesity and diabetes in ways that other foods do not.
Surely, consumers were beginning to react.
It’s happened to other products. Soda sales dropped about 17 percent since 1998, according to Beverage Digest, and sodas are the target of government efforts in several major cities to limit availability of the high-sugar product.
Some hints
There are some hints consumers’ attitudes toward cereal are changing: For the 52 weeks ending Feb. 24, General Mills’ ready-to-eat cereals dropped 1.96 percent, Post’s dropped 4 percent and Kellogg’s barely grew by .39 percent, according to SymphonyIRI Group, a Chicago-based market research firm.
And it’s not as though the companies have completely ignored public health campaigns. In fact, since that 1999 meeting, several companies, including General Mills, have reduced the levels of sugar, salt and oil in some of their products.
But in many products, cereals still contain more than a third sugar, and no company has abandoned sugar. They can only reduce so much sugar before Lucky Charms is no longer Lucky Charms.
In fact, over the past several years, despite the latest sales numbers, cereals have shown mostly growth. Ian Friendly, executive vice president for General Mills’ U.S. retail operations, said in New York last month that the company remains optimistic about cereal sales.
John Baumgartner, an analyst with Wells Fargo Securities who focuses on packaged food, said he doubts health campaigns will hurt cereal sales any time soon.
Breakfast cereal, he said, is still largely regarded as wholesome and healthy and that perception should protect it from health concerns affecting other foods, such as soda.
Aggressive marketing
Further, a study by the Yale University’s Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity found that many healthy cereals advertise the least and aggressive marketing and lofty health claims are associated with the most sugary of cereals.
And as to the recent slight decline in cereal sales, analysts and industry officials point to several explanations, including competition from the growing popularity of Greek yogurt, which has been criticized for its own sugar levels. (A 140 calorie-serving of non-fat vanilla Chobani Yogurt contains 17 grams of sugar, more than the 12.7 grams in a 140-calorie serving of Lucky Charms. General Mills’ official serving size of Lucky Charms contains 110 calories and 10 grams of sugar. And, by the way, Lucky Charms is low in fat.)
Baumgartner says a shift towards yogurt -- and frozen breakfasts, like sausage sandwiches – are the result of aggressive competition and innovation, not because cereals are being abandoned. Decreasing birth rates since the Great Recession have also decreased the number of cereal-eating children, he said.
Perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a decline in the popularity of sugary cereals. But cereal is not as ubiquitous as soda and hasn’t received the same level of attention. Michael Bloomberg hasn’t tried restricting cereal in New York City.
And with yogurt posing its own high levels of sugar, maybe this shift is a shell game between different sugary foods. But for now, it looks like breakfast will continue to be sweet whether or not it has marshmallows.
Tim Sturrock is a Twin Cities freelance writer.