Heading into the final days of the latest manufactured crisis, the one known by the ridiculous term “sequestration,” a new Pew poll suggests that President Obama has public opinion on his side on his approach to the sequestration and especially on the key question of whether the solution to that crisis and to deficit reduction generally should involve some tax increases.
It’s worth being skeptical about how much it matters, this far away from the next election, what the electorate thinks, and equally skeptical that the hypothetical median voter has a thought-through conviction about such complex matters with so many moving parts.
But, for what it’s worth, this poll (which apparently launches a new relationship between the Pew pollsters and USA Today) finds that:
- Just 22 percent of Americans, near a record low, consider themselves Republicans. 32 percent consider themselves Democrats and 41 percent call themselves independents.
- If no deal is reached to avert the sequestration cuts, 49 percent of Pew’s respondents say they will blame congressional Republicans, compared to 31 percent who would blame Obama. (The remainder said they would blame both or they didn’t know whom they would blame.)
- Obama’s approval rating, which spent much of the last two years in the 40s, stands at 51 percent, although this is a dip from 55 percent in Pew’s first poll after the election.
- Obama’s pretty-good approval rating is a little more interesting when one considers that when Pew asked about his handling of seven specific issues, he failed to get above 50 percent approval on any of them.
Republicans might take heart from this finding: As Susan Page’s writeup of the poll for USA Today put it: “When respondents were asked which of four issues was most pressing — the deficit, guns, immigration or climate change — 51% chose the deficit, three times that of any other issue.” And, on the list of seven issues about which Pew asked, Obama’s rating on handling the deficit – just 34 percent approval – was the lowest of the seven issues.
Republicans have traditionally advertised themselves as the party that cares most about deficit reduction. But in their recent standoffs against Obama, Republicans have also tried repeatedly to insist that deficit reduction be accomplished entirely by spending cuts, while Obama has insisted on a so-called “balanced” approach that includes higher taxes on the wealthy. This may be where Obamaism got its biggest endorsement in the poll. Again, quoting from Page’s writeup:
To begin digging out, three of four Americans say a deficit plan should include both tax increases and spending cuts, akin to the "balanced" approach Obama backs. While there is stronger support to cut spending than raise taxes, only one in five say a deficit-reduction package should rely solely on spending cuts, the position embraced by House Speaker John Boehner.
The full Pew writeup of the poll is here.